words // Brandon Richard
Last October, a report surfaced that stated adidas was prepared to give Kansas freshman Andrew Wiggins a 10-year endorsement deal worth as much as $180 million. That report was obviously ridiculous and we were able to debunk it with a little investigative work. However, that didn't mean there wasn't a high level of interest from bands in acquiring Wiggins' services. In fact, there definitely was — just not $180 million worth.
Heading into his first year under coach Bill Self with the Jayhawks, Wiggins was often described as the "best NBA prospect since LeBron James." Quite a lofty comparison, especially considering the amount of attention guys like Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, John Wall and Anthony Davis received as prep stars. In 2011, the Canadian standout transferred to West Virginia's Huntington Prep, where he was named 2013 Naismith Prep Player of the Year, 2013 Gatorade National Player of the Year, 2013 Mr. Basketball USA and was a McDonald's All-American. With his star shining brighter than ever, Wiggins chose to spend his time in college at Kanas over Florida State, Kentucky and North Carolina.
Wiggins' freshman campaign at Kansas probably left us with more questions than answers. He averaged 17 points and 6 rebounds per game — very respectable for a kid who just turned 19 in February. At times, he looked like the most talented player in the nation. On March 8, he dropped 41 points on 12-for-18 shooting and 8 rebounds against West Virginia. When Wiggins is assertive, you see flashes of the player that was supposed to be a can't-miss prospect. However, he finished his college career scoring 4 points in an NCAA Tournament loss to Stanford. In the game, he was a bit too passive, which has been the knock on him throughout the season.
With red flags being raised about Wiggins' game, several other prospects have emerged as possible top picks in June's NBA Draft. Teammate Joel Embiid, Duke's Jabari Parker, Kentucky's Julius Randle and Dante Exum out of Australia have all been mentioned. Truth be told, the once-vaunted Class of '14 doesn't have GMs and scouts as excited as they once were. There's obvious talent in the field, but the thinking that there are multiple franchise changers in this draft has all but diminished.
Despite inconsistent play this past season, Wiggins is still viewed as the #1 pick by analysts and experts. There's still workouts and evaluations to get through, but it's possible that he'll be selected where he was projected to go all along. That takes care of the basketball element of this story, but what about business, particularly the sneaker business?
Brands surely won't be leaving the line to sign the biggest name from this year's draft class, but how much should they be willing to invest? Like the team that drafts Wiggins, a brand is going to have to gamble on his upside. Nike will be players, but they have a free agent class that consists of high-profile players like Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Paul George. Jordan Brand rarely lands high profile players right out of college, but that somewhat changed last year with the addition of Victor Oladipo. After a few months of big celebrity signings and outfitting Wiggins in college, adidas will likely be in the mix. Under Armour is probably thinking about a way to follow up the Steph Curry splash from last summer and Chinese brands may be willing to hand over big bucks to steal him from the heavyweights.
Our own Nick DePaula speculates that after his up-and-down season, Wiggins could see something in the neighborhood of 5 years, $18-25 million. Not exactly $180 million, but a solid deal for a rookie whose stock dropped in school. Making the high end of that range would put Wiggins' numbers in line with what some All-Star endorsers are making per year on their current deals.
The way the NBA lottery pans out will factor into this discussion as well. Mainly because the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics could end up with picks near the top of the draft. Wiggins in Milwaukee is one thing — Wiggins joining Kobe in Hollywood takes his marketability to an entirely different level. We'll see what the envelopes reveal next month.
So, that leaves us with the question: should sneaker companies still go all in for Andrew Wiggins? Well, they can't go ALL in. There's too much uncertainty to completely break the bank. However, it may make sense for a non-Nike brand to have a high-end rookie deal drawn up and perhaps even be prepared to overspend a little. Why? Because when a guy is more of a sure thing, Nike almost always gets their man. In the event that they're not willing to pay big money to Wiggins, another brand will have the opportunity to step up and land one of the biggest recruits in years, even if he is coming off a brief stint in college during which he didn't meet expectations.
Do you still believe Wiggins is worth big money? Share your thoughts with us below.
